Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Walter Schloss 16 Steps To Make Money On Wall Street

(All of the following information was received during a Gurufocus.com webinar "Replicating the Investing Technique of Walter Schloss)

Walter Schloss was a very successful investor who was a student of the investing legend and "father of value investors" Benjamin Graham. Walter Schloss advocated to buy for value, diversify adequatley (extreme diversification is not needed) and to be patient. Walter Schloss rarely talked to management as he thought they pull a curtain over investors and did not like Phillip Fisher's "Scuttlebutt" method which is partially employed by Warren Buffett.

Walter Schloss advocated for looking at assets (book value) rather than focusing on the income statement. His reasoning behind this is that asset value fluctuate more slowly than you see in the income statement. Earnings are very difficult to predict and most analysts are often off on their earnings predictions. Schloss bought at low price/book ratios. When he did look at earnings he liked low prices to normalized earnings which are earnings that are averaged out over a number of years.

Like most other value investors Schloss like stocks with long histories and track records (15-20 years). A adeqately diversified, cheap basket of stocks was his strategy for risk reduction. He often owned 60-100 stocks at one time, had a maximum concentration fo 10% of his portfolio towards one stock, and his average holding period for one stock was about 4 years. His buying guidlines were that he typically bought stocks tha were around 1/2-2/3 of book value. During this period intangible assets weren't as large on the balance sheet as they are today. Intangible assets and Goodwill sometimes are worth deducting from the balance sheet, however there are circumstances such as Coca-Cola where they are worth more than their market cap due to their extremely strong brand. Schloss would pay up to book value or slightly over, but would never pay 2x book value. He especially looked for "unloved" areas of the market, or Inudstries that are lagginf in p/e when compared to the rest of the market. He would also look for individual companies that had lost a lot of their value, trading near their 3 year low Schloss never bought financial companies because he thought that their balance sheets were difficult to read and prefered simpler balance sheets and financial statements.
When Schloss would buy stocks he never invested the full amount immediatly but averaged in his investment amount. For example if he wanted to dedicate $10,000 to one stock, he would buy $5,000 worth and then over time average the rest of the amount in.

Below are Walter Schloss' 16 Steps to making money on the stock market

o   1. Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value
o   2. Try to establish the value of the company
§  Remember that a share of stock represents a part of the business and is not just a piece of paper
o   3. Use book value as a starting point to try to and establish the value of the enterprise
§  Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity
§  Capital and surplus for the common stock
o   4. Have patience, stocks don’t go up immediately
o   5. Don’t buy on tips or for a quick move
§  Let professionals do that, if they can
§  Don’t sell on bad news
o   6. Don’t be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in your judgment
§  Can’t be 100% but try to look for weakness in your thinking
§  Buy on a scale and sell on a scale up
o   7. Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision
o   8. Have a philosophy of investment and try to follow it
§  Above way is successful
o   9. Don’t be in too much of a hurry to sell
§  Of the stock reaches a price that you think is a fair one, then you can sell but often a stock because a stock goes up 50%, people say sell it and button up your profit
§  Before selling it try to reevaluate the company again and see where the stock sells in relation to its book value
§  Be aware of the high level of the stock market
·         Are yields low and p/e ratios high/ if the market historically high
·         Are people optimistic?
o   10.When buying a stock
§  Helpful to buy near the low of the past few years
·         Stock may go as high as 125 and then decline to 60 and you think it is attractive
·         3 years before the stock sold at 20 which shows there is some vulnerability to it
o   11. Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings
§  Earnings change dramatically in a short time
§  Usually assets change slowly
§  Have to know more about the company in order to buy earnings
o   12. Listen to suggestions from people your respect
§  Doesn’t mean you have to accepts them
§  Remember it’s your money and generally it is harder to keep money than to make it
·         Once you lose a lot of money it is hard to make it back
o   13. Try not to let your emotions affect your judgment
§  Fear and greed are probably the worst emotions to have in connection with the purchase and sale of stocks
o   14. Remember the work compounding
§  For example if you make 12% a year and reinvest the money back, you will double your money in 6 years, taxes excluded
§  Remember the rule of 72
o   15. Prefer stocks over bonds
§  Bonds will limit your gains and inflation will reduce your purchasing power
16. Be careful of leverage. It can go against you


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Saturday, March 8, 2014

Renewable Energy Group (REGI)

Company Overview
Renewable Energy Group is a leading North American Biodiesel with a nationwide distribution and logistics system. They are focused on converting natural fats, oils, and greases into advanced biofuels and on converting diverse feedstocks into renewable chemicals. They use lower cost feedstocks that will not have any impact on the price of food unlike some of their competitors.

Company Financials
Stock price is currently at 70% of its book value. Cash and short term investment have been increasing since 2008. Short term debts have increased in the past year however with a current ratio of 3.54 the company will have no issue in paying off short term liabilities. Liabilities have increased during 2013 however that was due to upgrade costs of two bio-refineries. Net margins increased greatly over the past year from 4.28% in 2012 to 11.03% in 2013 ranking higher than 75% of companies in its industry. Return in equity has also been increasing from 29.23% in 2012 to 36.13% in 2013 ranking higher than 68% of companies in its industry.

Ranking provided by: http://www.gurufocus.com/stock/REGI  

2013 Results
 In 2013 Renewable Energy Group sold 37% more gallons of biodiesel, increased revenue by 48%, increased gross profit to 16% from 6%, increased its adjusted EBITDA by 54%. Its 4Q13 operating highlights were listed as
-          Increased sales by 89.9% when compared to 4Q12
-          80.9% production increase compared to 4Q12
They announced in October spending of $30 million to further upgrade REG Mason City to allow the plant to produce high quality biodiesel from lower-cost raw materials like inedible corn, expected to be completed in 2014 and will not materially interrupt production. This upgrade follows REG Albert Lea biorefinery successfully completed in September; 4Q13 represented the first full quarter of flexible multi-feedstock operations at REG Albert Lea
Renewable Energy Group enhanced its distribution capability by completing a new barge-loading facility at REG Seneca, this compliments truck and rail shipping capabilities and enables a lower-cost method to ship biodiesel through inland waterway system
 In January Renewable Energy Group announced entry into industrial biotech and the renewable chemicals market with its acquisition of LS9, inc. REG Life Sciences now can convert diverse feedstocks into a wide range of valuable chemicals, a cornerstone investment for REG Life Sciences.

Source: Renewable Energy Group 2013 Annual Report

Risks
The cost of raw materials used as feedstocks are volatiles and results of operations could fluctuate substantially. Loss or reductions of governmental requirements for the use of biofuels could have a material adverse effect on revenues and operating margins, they believe that increased demand for biodiesel since July 2010 is directly attributable to the implementation of RFS2 which requires that a certain volume of biodiesel be consumed
In December 2013, total long-term debt was $27.15 million. Subjects them to potential defaults, could adversely affect ability to raise additional capital to fund operations and limits ability to react to changes in the economy/ biodiesel industry

Source: Renewable Energy Group Annual report 2012

Conclusion

Renewable Energy Group seems to have a good forward looking focus that is aiming at cutting costs to improve the company’s margins. In relation to its risk factors the long term debt of the company is an issue if there are changes within the industry or economy that the company needs to react to quickly like RFS2 which the company relies on for its demand of biodiesel fuels. Renewable Energy Group is in good financial health and it not yet selling at its book value. The stock seems to very volatile and would be one worth looking into when it takes another dip in price. 

Monday, March 3, 2014

Guaranty Federal Bancshares (GFED)

Guaranty Federal Bancshares
Company Overview
Founded in 1913 in Springfield Mo, Guaranty offers a wide range of products for both individuals and local-area businesses. It is found in 9 different locations, has 100+ area surcharge-free ATMs and offers its BaZing checking, a value checking account that offers discounts on on shopping, dining, and traveling, cell-phone protection, vision, and hearing savings, as well as a number of other benefits, for a monthly service charge.
Investment Attractiveness Qualities
Guaranty has increased its net margin and ROE over the past 3 years and it currently selling at 60% of its P/B value with a price target of $30. With a P/E ratio of 7.03, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.31, it is low on debt and has a lower P/E than competitors in its industry. The bank is earning a 26.90% return on its interest. The bank’s net margin also looks to be increasing in the past 12 months being now at 17.40% (ttm)
On its balance sheet, cash and accounts receivable been increasing over the past 2 years while debt/equity has been decreasing over the past 2 years. Cash flow has been increasing over the past two years while long-term debt liabilities have been decreasing.
Sources: Morningstar.com, Finviz.com
                In Guaranty’s 2013 fiscal year results net income increased from $1,944,000 in 2012 to $5,240,000 in 2013. Non-interest expense decreased by $499,000 due to received proceeds on an insurance claim related to a loss on deposit accounts that was recognized in the first quarter of 2013. The bank also reduced its nonperforming assets to $19.9 million (Dec. 31, 2013) from $22.5 million (Sept 30, 2013). This will continue to be a focus of the bank as said in their annual report. Guaranty has seen improvement in net margin and profitability given a challenging operating environment. There has also been multiple insider buying at the beginning of February (2/4/2013)
Risks
                The bank has a very high P/E to growth ratio (36.60). There has also been recent selling by one insider in the company although this could prove to be nothing serious. There is weak loan demand and continued low interest rates that the bank faces. There has been a decline in loan balances and increased competition in loan pricing which has significantly elevated the challenge to improve or maintain the loan yield. Long term interest rates are also increasing which has been reducing consumer demand for long-term secondary market mortgage loans which in turn has decreased Guaranty’s non-interest based income. This mortgage interest level is expected to remain or increase higher than its current level which means that the secondary market will remain a challenge compared to income in recent quarters.
Conclusion

                Guaranty Federal Bancshares seems to be an undervalued bank that is selling at 60% of its book value. With a price target of $30 it seems to be an attractive investment. Adding to that fact is that since the bank has been around since 1913 it has survived major economic collapses such as the Great Depression and our most recent recession. The risks attached to the bank are increased competition in loan pricing with a continued low interest rate. However they have greatly increased their net income in 2013. This stock has levelled off since a drop in its price in July 2013 but might be set for an increase due to improved performance. However with increased competition while still operating in a weak economy it will be one to keep an eye on.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Genworth Financial

Company Overview
                Genworth financial is an insurance company that provides services in three areas: retirement and protection, U.S. mortgage insurance, and international. Their products include life and long-term care insurance, mortgage insurance, lifestyle protection insurance, and annuities. They are a 9.5 billion dollar global insurance agency that ranks among the fortune 500 companies.
Company Highlights
New company CEO as of January 1st 2013, Thomas McInery he is well liked by analysts and has a wealth of knowledge in the field. He is currently leading the company in its turnaround. Genworth hit its goals for the 2013 period, they are holding company cash greater than 1.5X Debt service with a $350MM buffer, addressed near term debt maturities, ratings are “stable”, maintained margins in LTC (long term care) reserves and are restructuring actions to reduce expenses.
Currently starting their transition to growth stage, expecting moderate recovery across the U.S. economy with slightly below average GDP growth, a slow decline slow decline in unemployment, modest home price appreciation, and modest increase in 30 year fixed rate mortgage
                Aspires to have a 7-9% ROE by 2016. In 4Q13 net operating income increased 20% versus prior year. Company said to have made “progression on strategic objectives from 2013”. International MI performance was up 12% sequentially on lower losses with improved capital positions in Canada and Australia. U.S. MI earnings up $9MM, up $38MM from prior year on improving losses from lower delinquencies and continued improvement in the housing market. U.S. life insurance up 63% versus in the prior year. $400MM capital raised and dedicated for anticipated increase in U.S. MI capital requirements
Data source: Company financials and annual report
Why Buy
                A fortune 500 company that is currently trading at 50% of its book value that successfully saw through its stabilization goals. Net income has been increasing over the past 2 years. Earnings per share increased from $0.25 in 2011 to $1.04 (ttm). Net margin increased from 1.18% in 2011 to 5.26%ttm since company turnaround. ROE increased to 3.34%ttm. Solid company that has had an excellent management change that is undervalued currently entering their company growth period.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Opportunity Cost

Opportunity Cost is the cost of an alternative good or service that must be forgone because of a certain action. In other words Opportunity Cost of a resource is the next highest valued alternative use of that resource. For example if you chose to go out and see a movie your opportunity cost would be the time that you could have saved if you did not see that movie. Another example is the opportunity cost of going to college, if you did not go to college you would have saved money if you had worked instead. There are opportunity costs with every transaction because since goods and services are scarce something must be forgone while you are making a purchase.

Opportunity Cost plays a large part in choosing what investment to pick. If you invest in a stock that gives you a 2% return over the year. You chose to invest in that stock over another investment. If a stock you didn’t choose gave a return of 8% your opportunity cost would be 6% (8%-2%).

 

sources

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/opportunitycost.asp

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/OpportunityCost.html

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Economic Bubble

What Is A Bubble?
A bubble can form in economies, securities, stock markets and business sectors because of a change in the way that people conduct their businesses. For example during the tech boom people bought tech stocks at high prices believing that they could sell those stocks at an even higher price until they lose their confidence is lost and a large market correction or crash occurs. The same can be seen in the recent housing crisis. For years the prices of homes were rising and people thought that they would continually be an investment that would increase in value, so people took out home loans and invested in houses. However when there was a large influx of houses on the market it drove the price of houses down and the market crashed causing people to default on their loans resulting in a financial crisis as well. An economic bubble can also be described as a surge in a market caused by speculation regarding a commodity which results in an increased level of activity in that market which causes over-inflated prices.
Economic Bubbles In U.S. History
The United States housing bubble is one tat still lies in the minds of countless Americans who were effected. Housing prices peaked in the U.S. in early 2006 and then started to decline in 2006/07. In 1990 the average price of a U.S. home was priced at $149,800. There were many reasons that the housing bubble burst. In 1997 the Taxpayer Relief Act offered tax relief for people on the profits that were gained from the sale of a person's residence. People started investing in second homes and investment properties to take advantage of this. The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 made housing the only investment which escaped capital gains (the Taxpayer Relief Act gave single individuals $250,000 exclusion of taxes on capital gains and $500,000 for married couples). The Taxpayer Relief Act encouraged people to buy expensive, fully mortgaged homes as well as invest in second properties instead of investing in stocks, bonds, or other assets.
There were many other sources of the housing bubble that burst in 2007 which I will talk about in a later article that gives a more in depth description of the housing crisis. However the result was that people instead of putting their money in savings put their money in large housing investments beyond the amount of money that they currently held. The thought was that with the prices of housing appreciating (increasing in value) they would be able to pay off the large investment easily. However as housing prices started to decline in late 2006 the return on these investments decreased. A stipulation in the loans that people were taking out to invest in these expansive houses was that the house would serve as collateral if the person were to default on their loan so the bank would win no matter what because they had confidence that the housing market would continue to improve and the house that served as collateral would appreciate in value. However as the value of housing decreased consumer confidence in the housing market was lost and many people defaulted on their loans causing many home to go on the market thus decreasing the prices of houses further.
Sources

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Recessions


picture taken from (http://poetsandquants.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/recession.jpg)
In our current place in time the term recession is very important because that is what the United States has been going through for years. The term recession in economics is a general slowing down of economic activity. Indicators like GDP, employment, and investment spending fall while unemployment rises. There are many factors that can lead to a recession but the major cause of a recession is inflation. While there is high inflation and the percentage of goods and services that you can buy with the same amount of money decreases people cut the amount that they spend leisurely.This reduces overall spending as people begin to save more as inflation increases, however as individuals and businesses need to reduce their spending to avoid the higher costs GDP (gross domestic production) will decline. Unemployment will increase due to companies trying to lower their costs. The fall of GDP and the rise and unemployment are factors that cause an economy to go into a recession.